Kevin Kruse on the Democratic crisis of confidence
"People who predict a timely, neat process that will energize Democratic voters — I don’t know what fantasy world they’re living in."
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History suggests that concerted efforts to oust an incumbent president just ahead of a general election don’t end well. But considering this year’s existential stakes and the battering President Biden is taking from the press while his polling sags (or worse), it feels like we’re living through unprecedented times.
Biden has been a very effective president, still enjoys strong support from his base, won an overwhelming victory in the Democratic primary, and in a sane country would defeat Trump in a blowout. Yet his debate disaster raised legitimate questions about whether he’s up for the rigorous campaigning it’ll take to overcome Trump during the next four months. He continues to project unwavering confidence in ultimate victory even as more and more congressional Democrats publicly express doubts. But the interviews and public appearances he’s done so far this month haven’t been enough to stop the Democratic circular firing squad or quell concerns that his debate showing was a reflection of something more significant than one bad night.
Yes, there are still four months left until Election Day. A lot can and will change. But the terrifying threat of Trumpian authoritarianism looms larger and larger as the summer passes by with no discernible change in the trajectory of the race, which Biden is on track to lose.
To get some historical insight on this precarious moment in Democratic politics and American life, we connected with old friend Kevin Kruse to talk about the calls for Biden to drop out and what we can learn from prior presidential cycles — like 1968, 1980, and to a lesser extent 1992 — where an incumbent president found himself on the ropes before the fall even arrived.
Referring to calls from Jon Stewart and others for a contested convention, Kruse warned that it would be “total chaos” and “only bring out every imaginable schism in the Democratic coalition and amplify it.” But he emphasized that Biden passing the torch to VP Kamal Harris wouldn’t guarantee anything either.
“Whether it’s ‘Biden’s old’ or who knows what — Harris and DEI — the right-wing attacks are going to be out there,” Kruse said.
A full transcript of Kruse’s conversation with Public Notice contributor Thor Benson, lightly edited for length and clarity, follows.
Thor Benson
What do you make of all of these calls for Biden to drop out of the race?
Kevin Kruse
Pundits can talk all they want, but it ultimately comes down to him. We’ve reached a point where Biden’s got all of the delegates. It’s baked in. It’s got to be his decision. That’s why you’re seeing a public pressure campaign. I understand why there’s a freakout. I get that the debate performance was cringeworthy, but it was just one moment in the longer campaign.
The fact that Biden is old is nothing new. It’s not surprising that we’ve seen some calls for him to drop out. “Democrats in disarray” is the oldest chapter in the book. They’re always nervous and prone to panic. If it wasn’t this, it would have been something else. It’s just kind of who they are.
What has surprised me, though, are these bizarre “West Wing” fantasies that I’ve seen from pundits about a “blitz primary” or contested convention. These seem exciting on paper if you have a thin knowledge of politics, but would be utter chaos if they actually happened.
Thor Benson
It sounds like a receipt for general election disaster.
Kevin Kruse